Liverpool – Roma Champions League

Jurgen Klopp became famous at the time of Borussia Dortmund for his game based on pressing across the board and the continuous verticalizations. But as a Liverpool coach this season he was good at ignoring his tactical convictions or at least adapting them to the characteristics of the players at his disposal. Deploying the center of gravity too high with the defenders – all very tall and good in the air but not fast – would have been too risky. And trying to recover the ball with the continuous pressing would have led to a physical drop like the one that the team met between January and February 2017, without even playing European cups, among other things.

This Liverpool is more balanced – especially after the departure of Coutinho during the winter transfer market – and is more careful in defense. This season has suffered fewer goals than in the past, even if the average is about one goal taken to the game, that is high. The real strength is the attack, difficult to fight for any defense. With the speed of Salah and Manè and the great technique and skill on the shores of Firmino sometimes even a precise long throw is enough to send the opponents into trouble. Klopp’s team is also very good in the maneuver phase, manages to make a large number of fast and precise passes, and is good at attacking the second balls on the opposing defense, with the work of the midfielders.

Just list a few statistics to understand the great strength of the Liverpool attack. First of all, it is the team that has scored more goals in the Champions League: 33 in 10 games. In the championship he is second only to Manchester City, and still maintains an enviable average of 2.30 goals per game. Compared to the team of Guardiola, among other things, Liverpool is able to do more shots on goal. The merit is also and above all of the three attackers. Salah scored 31 goals in the league and provided 9 assists, Firmino 15 goals and 7 assists, Mané 10 goals and 7 assists. Together they scored about 75 percent of the team’s goals. Certainly the Roma coach Eusebio Di Francesco is clear who should try to stop, but this will not be easy to do.

The possible countermoves of Rome

Di Francesco has shown in this season to be a pragmatic coach. If he likes to use the 4-3-3, which made him emerge among the best young Italian coaches at the time of Sassuolo, this season has repeatedly shown that he is inclined to make different choices and to sparigliare for the good of the team. He did it both to adapt better to the characteristics of his players, and to try to counter the opponents’ game modules.

In the quarter-final return match against Barcelona he made a surprise choice which then proved decisive, going to 3-4-1-2. It is a form that could also re-propose against Liverpool, but it could slightly change its interpretation.

During this season the team coached by Klopp has encountered difficulties in attack only when he faced teams deployed with a very low center of gravity. In particular, Manchester United of Mourinho, never conceding the depth to Salah and Mané, managed to neutralize Liverpool’s attack by finishing the game without conceding a goal.

The Roma is not able to hold a game on the defensive for ninety minutes, it is not in its ropes, but probably Di Francesco will advise its players to keep the line of defense lower than usual, relying however to the speed of Manolas to recover any long shots to bypass the defense. To keep the chances of qualification intact, Roma must avoid suffering the goleada, because Liverpool in the European away field is not the same team that plays at Anfield. This season Alisson has taken more than two goals in a single game only at the start of the season against Inter and then against Barcelona at the Camp Nou, where he deserved better luck and where two goals were actually two own goals (plus a gift from Gonalons to Suarez). The defensive solidity shown in the season and the safety of the goalkeeper Alisson can allow Roma to avoid suffering more than two goals.

The latest news on the formations

Another consideration not to be overlooked: Liverpool are missing two holders, Matip in defense and Emre Can in midfield. The substitutes are Lovren, partner of the expensive but so far useful purchase of the winter transfer Van Dijk, and Milner. Above all in the latter case there is a certain difference. Milner does not give the team the same intensity as Emre Can in pressing, and Roma could have more time to run the ball in midfield. Klopp will send his team in the usual 4-3-3: the goalkeeper will be Karius, which is usually not a phenomenon. Full-backs should be Alexander-Arnold on the right and Robertson on the left. In midfield, as well as Milner, Oxlade-Chamberlain and Captain Henderson will play.

On the other side Di Francesco has the doubt whether to confirm the 3-4-1-2 with which he defeated Barcelona or if to deploy the usual 4-3-3 that turns into 4-2-3-1 in phase of attack with Nainggolan in the role of playmaker. In the case of 4-3-3 would play Perotti forward with Under and Dzeko. With 3-4-1-2 would find place in defense Juan Jesus along with Fazio and Manolas. The outsiders would be Florenzi and Kolarov, with De Rossi and Strootman at the center. Forward is much more likely to use the Under compared to Schick, given the greater speed of the Turkish to take advantage of the spaces that sometimes the Liverpool will leave on the break, and also for its better agreement with Dzeko.

Compared to Liverpool, Rome seems to have more quality alternatives to use in the current game, such as Pellegrini, Perotti, El Shaarawy and Schick. It is another factor to be taken into consideration and which could also be important from the point of view of the double comparison.

Prediction Liverpool – Roma

The difference especially in this first leg could make it Salah, passed during the last summer transfer from Rome to Liverpool. In the match between two teams that create several scoring chances in each game, it will be the one that manages to exploit them to the maximum. And at this moment the sense of goal of the Egyptian, which compared to the times of Rome has improved a lot in the finalization, could become a factor.

The probable Liverpool-Roma formations

LIVERPOOL (4-3-3): Karius; Alexander-Arnold, Lovren, Van Dijk, Robertson; Oxlade-Chamberlain, Henderson, Milner; Salah, Firmino, Mané.
ROMA (3-4-1-2): Alisson; Manolas, Fazio, Juan Jesus; Florenzi, De Rossi, Strootman, Kolarov; Nainggolan; Džeko, Ünder.

Prediction of the Day: MULTIGOL 2-5
Odds: 1.31
Prediction Today: 1X + OVER 1.5
Odds: 1.33